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Cross-Machine Transfer of Time-Series Foundation Models for Remaining Useful Life Estimation

Open Industry & Manufacturing

Cross-Machine Transfer of Time-Series Foundation Models for Remaining Useful Life Estimation

Cross-Machine Transfer of Time-Series Foundation Models for Remaining Useful Life Estimation

Description

Evaluate whether representations learned by time-series foundation models can support remaining useful life estimation for equipment with little or no machine-specific failure history.

Details

Context and Problem Statement

RUL models typically require complete degradation histories, yet well-maintained industrial equipment rarely reaches failure under monitored conditions. Time-series foundation models may provide transferable representations, but cross-machine generalization remains poorly understood.

Research Question

To what extent can frozen time-series foundation-model representations transfer across machine families, and how much local data is required to recover operationally useful prognostic performance?

Proposed Approach

Extract frozen foundation-model embeddings, train lightweight regression heads, compare with end-to-end recurrent and convolutional baselines, evaluate cross-machine transfer, and use uncertainty quantification to support maintenance-trigger decisions.

Expected Contribution

A transferability map across equipment families and an uncertainty-aware maintenance decision framework.

Expected Prototype

A prognostics module producing an RUL distribution and intervention recommendation from industrial sensor streams.

Datasets

C-MAPSS, FEMTO-ST / PRONOSTIA, and partner-collected vibration or current signals.

Challenges

Scarce run-to-failure data, heterogeneous sensors and sampling rates, edge inference cost, and long validation cycles.

Research Question

Can generic representations from time-series foundation models support useful RUL estimation for equipment with almost no machine-specific degradation history?

Innovation

The project focuses on scarce-failure-data regimes and reframes prognostics around uncertainty-aware maintenance decisions rather than point estimates alone.

Expected Deliverable

A cross-machine transfer benchmark, an uncertainty-aware prognostics module, and deployment recommendations.

Technologies

Time-Series Foundation Models (Chronos) Prognostics and Health Management Transfer Learning and Domain Adaptation Uncertainty Quantification Industrial Data Acquisition

Required Skills

  • Signal Processing and Vibration Analysis
  • Deep Learning and Pre-Trained Models
  • Statistics and Uncertainty Quantification
  • Industrial Instrumentation

Datasets

  • C-MAPSS (NASA Prognostics Data Repository)
  • FEMTO-ST / PRONOSTIA bearing dataset
  • Vibration measurements collected from industrial equipment

Morocco & Africa Relevance

Mining, chemical, and cement industries in Morocco operate critical equipment with expensive downtime but limited structured failure history.