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Fair and Actionable Early-Warning Analytics for Student Dropout in Engineering Programs

Open Education

Fair and Actionable Early-Warning Analytics for Student Dropout in Engineering Programs

Fair and Actionable Early-Warning Analytics for Student Dropout in Engineering Programs

Description

Predict dropout risk from learning traces while auditing subgroup fairness and linking each warning to interventions that the institution can realistically undertake.

Details

Context and Problem Statement

Early-warning systems often use factors that institutions cannot change, such as socioeconomic background, creating potentially unfair and inactionable alerts. Restricting features to modifiable behaviors may reduce apparent accuracy but increase practical value.

Research Question

What predictive-performance cost results from restricting a dropout-warning model to actionable variables, and does this restriction improve fairness across student subgroups?

Proposed Approach

Use knowledge tracing and survival analysis, compare unrestricted and actionable-feature models, audit subgroup fairness, and analyze proposed interventions counterfactually.

Expected Contribution

A quantitative characterization of the trade-off among prediction, fairness, and actionability.

Expected Prototype

A dashboard for academic coordinators showing at-risk groups, actionable factors, and support recommendations without stigmatizing individual scores.

Datasets

OULAD, EdNet, and anonymized institutional data under ethical approval.

Challenges

Stigmatization, self-fulfilling effects, privacy, small cohorts, and longitudinal validation.

Research Question

Does restricting early-warning models to institutionally actionable variables improve fairness without causing unacceptable predictive-performance loss?

Innovation

The project redefines early warning around actionable educational intervention rather than predictive accuracy alone.

Expected Deliverable

A fairness- and actionability-evaluated early-warning model, an institutional dashboard, and ethical recommendations for deployment.

Technologies

Knowledge Tracing and Survival Models Learning Analytics Algorithmic Fairness Auditing Counterfactual Analysis Data Visualization

Required Skills

  • Machine Learning and Survival Analysis
  • Statistics and Fairness Auditing
  • Educational Sciences
  • Ethics and Data Protection

Datasets

  • OULAD (Open University Learning Analytics Dataset)
  • EdNet
  • Anonymized institutional data under formal agreement

Morocco & Africa Relevance

First-year dropout remains a major challenge in Moroccan and African higher education, where limited support resources must be targeted effectively.